Pseudo-Static Analysis of Soil Nailed Excavations     

Gosavi Meenal  Swami Saran  Satyendra Mittal 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2009,27(4):571-583

In this paper, a pseudo-static analysis has been presented to investigate the stability of soil nailed vertical/nearly vertical excavations. The failure surface is assumed as the arc of log-spiral passing through the toe of the excavation and intersecting the ground at right angle. The horizontal and vertical seismic forces are taken in terms of horizontal and vertical seismic coefficients. The internal failure mode of the nailed cut is considered either by pull-out or rupture or excessive bending whichever is critical. Expression for the factor of safety is derived using moment equilibrium method. Results have been arranged in tabular form considering ranges of the design parameters usually occur in practice. A typical table for the design of nailed excavation with driven nails is presented in the paper. Analytical results have been compared with the findings of model tests and reasonably good agreement has been observed.  相似文献   

A comparison of predictive methods in modelling the distribution of periglacial landforms in Finnish Lapland     

Mathieu Marmion  Jan Hjort  Wilfried Thuiller  Miska Luoto 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(14):2241-2254

This study compares the predictive accuracy of eight state‐of‐the‐art modelling techniques for 12 landforms types in a cold environment. The methods used are Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Generalized Boosting Methods (GBM), Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and Mixture Discriminant Analysis (MDA). The spatial distributions of 12 periglacial landforms types were recorded in sub‐Arctic landscape of northern Finland in 2032 grid squares at a resolution of 25 ha. First, three topographic variables were implemented into the eight modelling techniques (simple model), and then six other variables were added (three soil and three vegetation variables; complex model) to reflect the environmental conditions of each grid square. The predictive accuracy was measured by two methods: the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot, and the Kappa index (κ), based on spatially independent model evaluation data. The mean AUC values of the simple models varied between 0·709 and 0·796, whereas the AUC values of the complex model ranged from 0·725 to 0·825. For both simple and complex models GAM, GLM, ANN and GBM provided the highest predictive performances based on both AUC and κ values. The results encourage further applications of the novel modelling methods in geomorphology. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The current-voltage relationship revisited: exact and approximate formulas with almost general validity for hot magnetospheric electrons for bi-Maxwellian and kappa distributions     

P. Janhunen  A. Olsson 《Annales Geophysicae》1998,16(3):292-297

We derive the current-voltage relationship in the auroral region taking into account magnetospheric electrons for the bi-Maxwellian and kappa source plasma distribution functions. The current-voltage formulas have in principle been well known for a long time, but the kappa energy flux formulas have not appeared in the literature before. We give a unified treatment of the bi-Maxwellian and kappa distributions, correcting some errors in previous work. We give both exact results and two kinds of approximate formulas for the current density and the energy flux. The first approximation is almost generally valid and is practical to compute. The first approximation formulas are therefore suitable for use in simulations. In the second approximation we assume in addition that the thermal energy is small compared to the potential drop. This yields even simpler linear formulas which are suitable for many types of event studies and which have a more transparent physical interpretation than the first approximation formulas. We also show how it is possible to derive the first approximation formulas even for those distributions for which the exact results can not be computed analytically. The kappa field-aligned conductance value turns out always to be smaller than the corresponding Maxwellian conductance. We also verify that the obtained kappa current density and energy flux formulas go to Maxwellian results when k .  相似文献   

A regional near-surface high frequency spectral attenuation (kappa) model for northwestern Turkey     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

One approach to model the high-frequency attenuation of spectral amplitudes of S-waves is to express the observed exponential decay in terms of Kappa (κ) factor [1]. Kappa is a significant parameter used for identifying the high-frequency attenuation behavior of ground motions as well as one of the key parameters for stochastic strong ground motion simulation method. As of now, there is not a systematic investigation of the Kappa parameter based on the recently-compiled Turkish ground motions. In this study, we examine a strong ground motion dataset from Northwestern Turkey with varying source properties, site classes and epicentral distances. We manually compute κ from the S-wave portion of each record and study both horizontal and vertical kappa values. We use traditional regression techniques to describe the (potential) relationships between kappa and selected independent variables such as the site class, distance from the source or magnitude of the event. A linear effect of magnitude on kappa is not found statistically significant for the database studied herein. We express the initial findings of a regional κ model for Northwestern Turkey as a function of site class and epicentral distances. Single station analyses at selected sites confirm the regional model. Finally, we present stochastic strong motion simulations of past events in the region using the proposed kappa model. Regardless of the magnitude, source-to-site distance and local site conditions at the stations, the high-frequency spectral decay is simulated effectively at all stations considered.  相似文献   

UNFCCC before and after Paris – what's necessary for an effective climate regime?     

Lukas Hermwille  Wolfgang Obergassel  Hermann E. Ott  Christiane Beuermann 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):150-170

What can reasonably be expected from the UNFCCC process and the climate conference in Paris 2015? To achieve transformative change, prevailing unsustainable routines embedded in socio-economic systems have to be translated into new and sustainable ones. This article conceptualizes the UNFCCC and the associated policy processes as a catalyst for this translation by applying a structurational regime model. This model provides an analytical distinction of rules (norms and shared meaning) and resources (economic resources as well as authoritative and allocative power) and allows us to conceptualize agency on various levels, including beyond nation states. The analysis concludes that the UNFCCC's narrow focus on emission targets, which essentially is a focus on resources, has proven ineffective. In addition, the static division of industrialized and developing countries in the Convention's annexes and the consensus-based decision-making rules have impeded ambitious climate protection. The article concludes that the UNFCCC is much better equipped to provide rules for climate protection activities and should consciously expand this feature to improve its impact.

Policy relevance

The international community is negotiating a new global climate agreement, to be adopted at the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 in Paris and to be applicable from 2020. This article analyses the successes and limitations the UNFCCC has had so far in combating climate change and it develops recommendations on how to enhance efforts within and beyond the framework of the Convention. From our analysis we derive two main recommendations for an effective and structurationally balanced treaty: First, multidimensional mitigation contributions going beyond emission targets could strongly improve countries’ abilities to tailor their contributions around national political discourses. Second, the UNFCCC regime should be complemented with another treaty outside of the UNFCCC framework. This ‘Alliance of the Ambitious’ would allow the pioneers of climate protection to move ahead and enjoy the benefits of cooperation. The dynamics generated through such a club approach could be fed back into the UNFCCC, leading to increased ambition by others in future commitment cycles.  相似文献   

利用Kappa统计值研究多种空气质量预报方法的一致性     

侯宜广  赵瑾  董玉昆  孙建印 《气象》2011,37(2):232-236

采用基于权重Kappa统计值的方法,在剔除了由于偶然性和随机性造成的一致性的基础上,对三种常用的空气质量预报方法的预测结果的一致性进行了衡量.结果表明,"数值模式预报"与"综合经验预报"的预测结果为"中等的一致性",说明其预测结果的一致性并不是由于偶然性造成的.衡量结果是清晰的,避免了来自主观评价的差异.从而,有利于提高对不同模型预测结果的差异性的认识,对进一步提高空气质量预报的准确度有着重要意义.  相似文献   

Indonesia tuna fisheries development and future strategy     

《Marine Policy》2014

Tuna has made a significant contribution to Indonesian and world fisheries. Indonesian tuna fisheries were introduced from Japan, Taiwan and Korea. Longline fishing was introduced in 1962, and purse seine gear was first used in 1974. Many foreign vessels have reflagged to the Indonesian flag. The Indonesian government developed its own tuna fisheries and closed the chartering program in 2006. Through these efforts, Indonesia became the number one tuna production country in 2004 and has further targeted an increase in marine capture fisheries catch of 0.5%/year from 2010 to 2014. Tuna resources remain under pressure globally. The tuna regional fisheries management organizations attempt to manage tuna fisheries by strengthening conservation of stocks. To enhance international cooperation, Indonesia ratified the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1985 and the Agreement for the Implementation of the Provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 relating to Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks in 2005 and became a member of Indian Ocean Tuna Commission and Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna and a cooperating non-member of Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission in the 2000s. Consequently, Indonesia adopted domestic regulations to comply with management measures. For future sustainable development, Indonesia needs to build its capacity, improve its compliance with the tuna RFMOs’ conservation and management measures, strengthen data collection, develop its products to increase their quality and diversification, and enhance its international cooperation.  相似文献   

Calibrating a neural network‐based urban change model for two metropolitan areas of the Upper Midwest of the United States     

Bryan C. Pijanowski Corresponding author  Snehal Pithadia  Bradley A. Shellito  Konstantinos Alexandridis 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(2):197-215

We parameterized neural net‐based models for the Detroit and Twin Cities metropolitan areas in the US and attempted to test whether they were transferable across both metropolitan areas. Three different types of models were developed. First, we trained and tested the neural nets within each region and compared them against observed change. Second, we used the training weights from one area and applied them to the other. Third, we selected a small subset (～1%) of the Twin Cities area where a lot of urban change occurred. Four model performance metrics are reported: (1) Kappa; (2) the scale which correct and paired omission/commission errors exceed 50%; (3) landscape pattern metrics; and (4) percentage of cells in agreement between model simulations. We found that the neural net model in most cases performed well on pattern but not location using Kappa. The model performed well only in one case where the neural net weights from one area were used to simulate the other. We suggest that landscape metrics are good to judge model performance of land use change models but that Kappa might not be reliable for situations where a small percentage of urban areas change.  相似文献   

A review of assessment methods for cellular automata models of land-use change and urban growth     

Xiaohua Tong 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(5):866-898

ABSTRACT

Cellular automata (CA) models are in growing use for land-use change simulation and future scenario prediction. It is necessary to conduct model assessment that reports the quality of simulation results and how well the models reproduce reliable spatial patterns. Here, we review 347 CA articles published during 1999–2018 identified by a Scholar Google search using ‘cellular automata’, ‘land’ and ‘urban’ as keywords. Our review demonstrates that, during the past two decades, 89% of the publications include model assessment related to dataset, procedure and result using more than ten different methods. Among all methods, cell-by-cell comparison and landscape analysis were most frequently applied in the CA model assessment; specifically, overall accuracy and standard Kappa coefficient respectively rank first and second among all metrics. The end-state assessment is often criticized by modelers because it cannot adequately reflect the modeling ability of CA models. We provide five suggestions to the method selection, aiming to offer a background framework for future method choices as well as urging to focus on the assessment of input data and error propagation, procedure, quantitative and spatial change, and the impact of driving factors.  相似文献   

A discursive cartography of nationally determined contributions to the Paris climate agreement     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

The 2015 Paris Agreement was adopted in a geopolitical context that is very different from the post-Cold War era when the Climate Convention was negotiated. This new global climate deal responds to a more fragmented and multipolar world signified by the rise of major economies in the South. This paper examines the geopolitical landscape in which the Paris Agreement is enacted and implemented. We conduct a discursive analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by parties to the Paris Agreement. We ask what policy discourses emerge in these national climate plans, which states cluster around them and how they compare to UNFCCC annex, geographical location, income group, and negotiation coalitions. Our findings suggest that liberal environmentalism retains a strong hold over the political imagination in the post-Paris landscape. However, we see points of diffraction and tensions that might give rise to conflict. While liberal environmentalism is only challenged in Nationally Determined Contributions from the global South, we conclude that conventional geopolitical patterns only partly explain the formation of discourse coalitions. In the Paris Agreement’s implementation stage discursive struggles are likely to become increasingly prominent. Discourse analysis facilitates understanding of disagreements on the Paris rulebook and the global stocktake.  相似文献